报告题目：Over-projected Pacific warming and extreme El Niño frequency due to CMIP5 common biases

报告人：罗京佳，南京信息工程大学教授

主持人：彭世球 研究员

报告时间：2021年8月18日星期三上午9：30

报告形式：线上报告

腾讯ID：424 773 166

摘要：Extreme El Niño events severely disrupt global climate, causing pronounced socio-economic losses. A prevailing view is that extreme El Niño events, defined by total precipitation or convection in Niño3 area, would increase twofold in future. However, this projected change was drawn without correcting potential impacts of CMIP5 models’ common biases. Here, we find that models’ systematic biases in simulating the tropical climate change over the past century can reduce the reliability of the projected change in the Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) and its-related extreme El Niño frequency. The projected Pacific SST change, after correcting impacts of 13 common biases, displays a La Niña-like rather than El Niño-like change. Consequently, the extreme El Niño frequency, which is highly linked to the zonal distribution of the Pacific SST change, would remain mostly unchanged under CMIP5 warming scenarios. This finding increases the confidence in coping with climate risks associated with global warming.

简历：罗京佳，南京信息工程大学教授，气候与应用前沿研究院院长，2018年全职回国，入选国家千人计划，江苏省“双创个人和团队”计划，国家重点研发计划项目首席，CLIVAR太平洋区域委员会委员。2001年获日本东京大学物理海洋博士，曾在日本海洋科学开发机构和澳洲气象局长期工作，主要研究年际-年代际气候变化，全球气候模式研发，气候预测及其应用，取得了多项国际先进成果，荣获日本政府颁发的青年科学家奖等多项国内外奖励。共发表Nature、Science、PNAS、NSR等论文140余篇，Google Scholar统计的文章总引用数超过1万2千次。