LTO学术报告2022-33

报告题目:Arctic sea-ice loss drives more frequent strong El Niño events
报告人:刘骥平,美国纽约州立大学 教授
 

报告人简介: 刘骥平教授,1994年毕业于南京气象学院,获学士学位;1997年毕业于中国气象科学研究院,获硕士学位;2003年毕业于美国哥伦比亚大学,获博士学位。现任美国纽约州立大学教授,先后在美国NASA戈达德空间研究所、乔治亚理工学院、纽约州立大学从事科研和教学工作,是国际上极地海冰与全球变化领域的知名科学家。主要研究领域包括:地球系统模式中海冰-海洋模式的发展、极地变化对天气气候的反馈、极地海冰和气候预测、极地海冰-海洋卫星遥感。已发表学术论文160多篇。
 
报告摘要:
Arctic sea ice has decreased substantially and is projected to reach a seasonally ice-free state in the coming decades. Little is known whether decreasing Arctic sea ice is capable of influencing the occurrence of strong El Niño, a prominent mode of climate variability with global impacts. Based on time slice coupled model experiments, we show that no significant change in the occurrence of strong El Niño is found in response to moderate Arctic sea-ice loss that is consistent with satellite observations to date. However, as the Arctic becomes seasonally ice-free, the frequency of strong El Niño events increases by more than one third, as defined by gradient-based El Niño indices that remove mean tropical Pacific warming induced by Arctic sea-ice loss. By comparing our time slice experiments with greenhouse warming experiments, we conclude that more than one third of the increase of strong El Niño near the end of the 21st century is associated specifically with Arctic sea-ice loss. Further separation of Arctic sea-ice loss and greenhouse gas forcing only experiments implies that the seasonally ice-free Arctic might play a key role in driving significantly more frequent strong El Niño events. 
 
报告时间:2022年10月28日 09:30                                         
腾讯会议ID(线上报告):197 940 981
主持人:杜岩 研究员
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