报告题目Rapid Urbanization and Heavy Rainfall in East China

报告人张大林 美国马里兰大学 教授

报告摘要The urban heat island (UHI) effects tend to produce more rainfall on its downwind side than that on the other sides, but alone could hardly account for the generation of heavy rainfall. In this talk, I will first show a 44-yr (i.e., 1975-2018) climatology of the summertime heavy rainfall over East China, showing a significant correlation between rapid urbanization and increased heavy rainfall events during the past two decades. Then, I will present a case study of the influences of the UHI effects associated with the Shanghai-Suzhou-Wuxi-Changzhou city belt on generating an afternoon heavy rainfall event. This event occurred under the influences of weak southwesterly monsoonal flows on 26 July 2018 over coastal Nantong that is 70100 km downwind from the city belt. Several cloud-permitting model simulations with the finest grid spacing of 1 km are performed. Results show i) the initiation of convective storms along the city belt, and their subsequent downstream propagation, leading to the generation of heavy rainfall over Nantong; and ii) the generation of little rainfall over the plain area on the north of the city belt, after replacing urban and built-up land uses by croplands over the region; and iii) only small contribution of Nantong’s UHI effects to the heavy rainfall event. The above results support the recent IPCC (2021) Sixth Assessment Report, stating that rapid urbanization has contributed to “increases in mean and extreme precipitation over and downwind of the city, especially in the afternoon and early evening (medium confidence)”.

报告人简介张大林教授于1976年毕业于中国科学技术大学近代力学系,1981和1985年在美国宾州州立大学气象系分别获理学硕士和博士学位。1986-1988年在美国国家大气科学研究中心(NCAR)从事博士后研究。 1989-1996年在加拿大麦吉尔大学任助理、副教授;自1996年8月起,在美国马里兰大学大气-海洋科学系任副、正教授。长期从事大气科学本科及研究生教育和中尺度气象、雷暴灾害天气(如暴雨,暴风雪、台风和城市热岛效应)过程的动力特征及结构演变规律的科学研究以及灾害性天气数值预报模式的发展、改进。截至2023年12月,共发表SCI论文200多篇。在2006年汤森路透 (Thomson Reuters) 科技信息集团对过去十年间热带气旋研究发表总数排名”为全球第四,“总引用次数排名”和“单篇引用次数排名”均为全球第六。1991年获美国气象学会杰出青年科学奖(The Clarence Meisinger Award),“for pioneering work in the understanding and numerical modeling of mesoscale convective weather systems。”1997年入选为英国皇家气象学会会士,2006年入选为美国气象学会会士,2006和2015年二次获美国国家宇航局(NASA)集体成就奖。曾经担任《大气科学进展》共同主编,中国气象学会《气象学报》中、英文刊副主编,美国气象学会《天气与预报》副编和编辑以及《天气月评》副编。

报告时间:2023年12月29日 10:00
主持人:王春在 研究员