报告人：徐邦琪 南京信息工程大学 教授

报告题目：MJO年代际变化机制及气候影响

报告人简介：徐邦琪，南京信息工程大学教授、博导，世界气象组织WCRP联合科学委员会委员。长期致力季节内振荡动力学、季节内振荡和天气-气候相互作用、延伸期预报理论与方法研究。已发表学术论文120余篇，其中第一作者或通讯作者论文70余篇，发表于《Science Advances》、《PNAS》和《BAMS》等国际知名期刊。担任《J. Meteorol. Res.》副主编，及《Journal of Climate》、《SCIENCE CHINA: Earth Sciences》、《AOSL》、《大气科学学报》、《气象科学》等多家期刊编委。承担完成国家重点研发计划项目，获国家杰出青年科学基金项目资助。

报告摘要：In this talk, I will present the decadal variations in the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) from the 20th to the early 21st century and their impact on Antarctic temperature changes. Since 1900, the amplitude of the MJO has shown an increasing trend, with the most significant enhancement in precipitation variability over the tropical western Pacific. This strengthening of MJO convective activity is primarily driven by increased moisture interacting with enhanced low-level convergence anomalies. Beyond the global warming-related increase in MJO variability, MJO activity is also influenced by natural mode of decadal variability. Notably, tropical Pacific MJO activity shows a cross-basin link with decadal variability in North Atlantic SST. During the negative phase of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), vigorous MJO extends eastward toward the central Pacific. The interaction between AMO-induced tropical Pacific wind anomalies and moisture perturbations drives this zonal shift in MJO activity. In recent decades, reduced MJO convection over the Indian Ocean and more active MJO activity over the western Pacific have together contributed to a cooling trend over East Antarctica by modifying atmospheric circulations connected to poleward-propagating Rossby wave trains. From 1979 to 2014, decadal changes in the MJO accounted for up to 20%–40% of the observed summer cooling trend in East Antarctica.

报告时间：2025年4月3日 10：30

报告地点：2号楼1201会议室

主持人：王鑫 研究员